政策不确定性对公司投融资行为的影响研究

本文以2003-2013年中国A股上市公司的财务数据和31个省市自治区地方官员的变动数据为样本,采用地方官员变动率作为地方政策不确定性的代理变量,研究了政策不确定性对企业投融资的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性显著降低企业的债权融资,但是对股权融资影响不显著。政策不确定性对企业投资的影响存在两种渠道,一是通过降低企业融资来影响投资,二是通过企业资本运作降低融资对投资的影响系数,即政策不确定性越高,企业债权和股权融资对投资的正向作用会越小,这种作用机制在国有企业、大企业等与政策联系紧密的企业中作用更为显著。融资可获得性是政策不确定性影响投资的重要前提之一,融资可获得性较小时,政策不确定性显著降低了企业投资;在融资可获得性较大时,政策不确定性影响不显著。加强长期制度建设,降低政策不确定性,对于稳增长具有重要意义。     

Ambidexterity under digitalization: A tale of two decades of new media at a Swedish newspaper

The digitalization of the newspaper industry represents a significant challenge for incumbent companies to engage new technologies. Many companies in the industry have had to seek new markets through digital technologies to survive. This paper explores how one of the largest Swedish newspapers, Aftonbladet, has strategically embraced new media and new markets. We report a decade of engaged scholarship based on interviews and archival analysis that covers 20 years of strategic acts at the company. We consider this effort as a case of organizational ambidexterity under digitalization. The analysis seeks to extend theoretical understanding of the interrelationships between strategic intent and technological choice. The paper contributes to the understanding of ambidexterity under digitalization by theoretically framing it in terms of strategic acts. The research suggests that digitalization implies a more complex ambidexterity interrelationship between old and new markets and technologies. As digitalization enables the loosening of previously tight couplings, the clear theoretical distinction between old and new, and critically, the unproblematic transition, is brought into question. The paper suggests replacing the notion of an orderly shift from the old to the new with ambidexterity under digitalization as a duality of both old and new undergoing continual reconfiguration.     

基于组态视角的众创空间创客集聚机制研究

以江苏省383家众创空间为样本，应用组态思维和QCA方法整合资源与服务两个层面的6个条件，探讨形成众创空间创客集聚差异的多重并发和复杂机理。结果发现：①众创空间高创客集聚存在服务主导型、场地-创客教育主导型、全要素型3个组态，其中，服务主导型、场地-创客教育主导型能深层次、强有力地影响众创空间高创客集聚；②众创空间非高创客集聚存在单纯地产式、单纯线下投资促进、单纯线上投资促进3种组态，且对众创空间非高创客集聚的影响基本相当；③资金资源不充足、场地资源不充足与人员服务不充足在解释非高创客集聚时具有替代作用。     

The distinct contribution of investment promotion agencies’ branch offices in bringing Chinese multinationals to Europe

This study uncovers the distinct contribution of investment promotion agencies’ (IPAs) overseas branch offices in advancing and even creating foreign direct investment. It offers a novel categorisation of IPAs depending on location and headquarter/branch status, and conceptually connects the known functions of IPAs with the advantages set out by the OLI paradigm. Empirical examination of longitudinal data from 29 European IPAs finds that the activities of their branches in China instilled greater awareness and confidence in Chinese multinational enterprises about their ownership- and European location-specific advantages. This contribution of IPA branches is especially salient in emerging economies with newcomer investors.     

Media coverage and investment efficiency

We examine the effect of media coverage on firm-level investment efficiency. We find that media coverage reduces under-investment but increases over-investment. The negative effect of media coverage on under-investment is more pronounced in firms affected by greater information asymmetry and poorer corporate governance. The positive effect of media coverage on over-investment is driven by media-induced CEO overconfidence. Additional results show that both investment- and non-investment-related news coverage decrease under-investment, while non-investment-related news coverage is more influential in increasing over-investment. In general, higher news optimism is associated with less under-investment but more over-investment. Moreover, media coverage affects investment efficiency through its information dissemination rather than information creation function. Collectively, our results suggest that firms’ media visibility promotes more over-investment than under-investment.     

服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据，采用多维固定效应模型，探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响，经研究发现：第一，服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本，促进企业服务贸易出口增长；第二，我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际，具体而言，整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%，同时会提升企业的出口概率；第三，我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性，具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%，而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应"；东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%，而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

Smoking hot portfolios? Trading behavior,investment biases,and self-control failure

Self-control is a personality trait that explains undersaving and nonparticipation decisions. We show that self-control failure also affects trading behavior among individuals on capital markets. We use smoking as the most socially accepted example of self-control failure among 13,644 German brokerage clients and compare the trading behavior of 3,553 smokers and 10,091 nonsmokers. Smokers are associated with a higher portfolio turnover unexplained by financial sophistication or wealth effects. Self-control failure also exacerbates overconfidence, social contagion, sensation seeking, and attention grabbing. Overall, self-control failure is costly because it increases the gap between gross and net returns of smokers relative to nonsmokers.     

Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks

This study contributes to the literature by making a first step toward implementing a comprehensive internally coherent measurement of systemic risk in a country. It measures systemic risk and the ensuing conditional contingent liabilities of the sovereign stemming from Luxembourg’s Other Systemically Important Institutions (OSIIs), the Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) to which they belong, the investment funds sponsored by the OSIIs, the household and the non-financial corporate sectors. The ensuing estimated systemic contingent claims are included in a stochastic version of the general government’s balance sheet to gauge their impact on the country’s sovereign risk. Results indicate that time-varying conditional implicit guarantees from OSSIs are larger than those from G-SIBs and investment funds, while systemic risk stemming from the household and non-financial corporate sectors is moderate. The robustness of the sovereign is not drastically affected by systemic risk stemming from the rest of the economy. However, illustrating the so-called “deadly embrace”, sovereign risk would significantly rise as a result of a historically plausible increase in sovereign assets’ value volatility combined with an economy-wide shock. The main policy implication is that financial stability stands on two columns, a resilient financial sector and a sustainable fiscal position.     

环境规制、融资约束与企业污染减排——来自排污费标准调整的证据

“十四五”规划提出建设人与自然和谐共生的现代化,这要求持续推进污染减排促进经济绿色低碳转型,实现环境与经济协同发展。基于2007年起排污费提高的政策冲击和2004-2013年工业企业污染数据,本文使用倍差法考察排污费提高的污染减排效果以及融资约束对政策效应的影响。研究发现排污费提高后,污染排放水平显著下降,但产出也受到较大冲击;企业减排方式存在明显差异,大型企业主要通过降低污染强度的方式来降低污染排放,而中小型企业则主要采取降低生产规模的方式来降低污染排放;进一步基于环境投融资角度对企业减排行为的分析揭示,融资约束影响中小企业污染减排,加剧排污费提高对产出的影响。因此,提高绿色金融的环境投融资供给能力是促进经济绿色转型的重要途径。     

基于列生成的高速铁路车站作业计划调度调整方法研究

大型高速铁路车站到发线及列车进路的冲突是调度调整的重点,为了提高调整效率和效果,在将问题抽象为时空网络上多商品流的基础上,考虑技术作业要求、作业间隔时间、线路和进路运用规则等约束条件,以列车总晚点时间小、旅客便捷性好为目标,构建集到发线、咽喉进路和到发时刻为一体的车站作业调度调整0-1整数规划模型。针对调度调整的强实时性,设计基于列生成的求解算法,并以长春西站为例进行验证。结果表明,该方法可在较短时间内得到满意的车站作业计划调整方案。